Pierre hassner
13 SEPTEMBER 2011

Eight months after the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, disappointment and doubts seem to dominate the scene of the Arab revolutions. One wonders if the Arab spring has not turned into a summer of discontent. One also wonders if the rapid elimination of Ben Ali and Mubarak was not the exception, whether in Tunisia and Egypt themselves discord and distrust have not replaced the early popular unity, and whether the old – military and social – structures are not still in place, as well as the economic crisis, in particular the unemployment, which were the immediate causes of the revolt. Elsewhere, dictators fight back ferociously and even if they are to be finally overthrown, their legacy may well be civil war, or at least civil strife between ethnic, tribal, regional and/or religious factions, with neighbours and outside powers unable or unwilling to affect the situation decisively....