Tunisia's First Legislative Elections Post-Revolution

[AlJazeera]

Introduction

The Tunisian political elite overcame numerous barriers and obstacles encountered during stages of the country’s democratic transition and succeeded in reviving several constitutional institutions,(1) thanks to mutual concessions and the spirit of rapprochement demonstrated by major political players. They finished drafting the Constitution of the Second Republic earlier this year, with content comparable to constitutions of well-established democracies and superior in some respects.(2)  The constituent assembly also issued a fundamental law governing the elections and the referendum,(3) and elected the nine members of the Higher Independent Electoral and Referendum Commission which will oversee this process. In addition, they set a schedule for the legislative elections (26 October 2014) and the presidential election (first round on 23 November 2014) to conclude the third phase of democratic transition.

Tunisia’s first legislative elections will occur in the context of challenging economic, social and security conditions. Most economic sectors have witnessed a decline in production and a rise in supply, which adversely affects the growth rate.(4)  Socially, the unemployment rate has remained high at about 15.2 per cent, especially among university graduates (estimated at 31.4 per cent during the first third of the year).(5)

There are also persistent rumours of a terrorist plot with a “regional” dimension, one that will attack Tunisia’s political stability and is aimed at creating a state of chaos and confusion in the transition track by targeting the electoral process.(6) The region is currently in a state of upheaval, with recent events in Libya and the ensuing violence, disorder and instability having direct and ongoing consequences on Tunisia. Algeria also seems “concerned” by the evolution of the Tunisian situation and potentially unfavourable outcomes of the election.(7) The regional and broader (Arab) disturbances also impact Tunisia because most countries in this region, despite their contradictory strategies, seek to abort or derail the democratic process in Tunisia.(8) They may opt to act together or to employ local militant groups that use political terrorism to thwart Tunisia’s emerging democracy.(9)

General characteristics of the candidate lists

The number of candidate lists for the legislative elections have reached 1,336, distributed as seen in Table 1.

These lists come after 175 lists were dropped, including 79 party lists, 12 coalition lists, and 84 independent lists.(11) A total of 15,652 candidates will compete for 217 seats in the Assembly of Representatives. In other words, seventy-two candidates will contest every seat. This large number reflects the enthusiasm of Tunisians to participate in public affairs after decades of isolation and authoritarianism.

The number of registered voters is 5,236,240 citizens, representing almost 70 per cent of the eligible electorate, a ratio that appears satisfactory. A high proportion of registered voters (sixty-three per cent) are in the eighteen to forty years of age bracket, while the percentage of women registered is about fifty-one per cent, up from about forty-five per cent in 2011.(12) The fact that the targeted ten per cent threshold for women was not met gives the indication that the major political parties have marginalised Tunisian women, although the proportion of female heads of electoral lists rose from less than three per cent in 2011 to nearly eight per cent in 2014. It is worth noting that this is a phenomenon that is not unusual in the rest of the Arab and Muslim world.(13) Despite the high proportion of young people who turned out to register compared with the 2011 election, their representation remains limited, as evidenced by the continued absence of youth from the leadership on the candidate lists.

A new phenomenon in the political landscape is the prominent presence of businessmen on the party lists, with the Renaissance Movement including nine businessmen,(14) the Call for Tunisia including seven(15) and a quarter of the Prospects Party’s list businessmen.(16) The candidacy of this extraordinary number of businessmen has raised considerable controversy in political and intellectual circles, especially considering that most businessmen are candidates in areas where there is no economic development.(17)

The competitors

Party lists

Eight hundred and fourteen party lists were submitted for the Assembly of Representatives elections, including eighty-two from abroad. In total, 1,218 lists were accepted and one hundred and seventy-five lists were rejected at home. Table 2 breaks down these lists.

The large parties presented candidates in all constituencies, while other parties only registered a presence in selected districts. Another phenomenon that emerged during the preparations for these elections, especially when the doors of candidacy were opened, was the emergence of many acrimonious disputes that led to the resignation of
several important party members, though this varied from one party to another. (19)

Parties currently represented in the Constituent Assembly

Renaissance Movement (Ennahda)

The Renaissance Movement is fielding candidates in all districts, with twenty-seven within Tunisia and six from the Tunisian diaspora. It appears to have followed democratic methods in the process of selecting and sorting the heads and members of the lists, with limited interference. Its lists were generally characterised by social, educational and career diversity, as shown in the following table:

Thirteen of the movement's electoral lists were headed by deputies from the Constituent Assembly and five former ministers also presided over lists. The total number of former ministers who participated as members of the lists was ten, and the lists included nine businessmen, eleven lawyers and six physicians as well.(20)

This party is one of the most solid parties in terms of its structure and discipline, as well as its geographic and social reach. The party also promotes speech that is characterised by maturity and the desire to build a democratic model.(21) Thus, its ability to compete is quite apparent, particularly in light of several other, weaker parties. Despite this, it is likely that the relative size of its electoral base will shrink due to various factors, including its past performance and the fallout resulting from its administration of the government, as well as structural factors. It is important to note that most other heavily represented parties in the Constituent Assembly have been subjected to internal tensions that have led to splits within these parties.

The Bloc Party

Though it has experienced heavy withdrawals, this party has fielded twenty-seven lists at home and six abroad. Women chair five lists, and six lists are chaired by members of the Constituent Assembly. A former minister in the Troika government chairs one list.

Congress Party for the Republic

Even though dissidents from this party established three new parties, the Congress Party is also fielding thirty-three districts in Tunisia and abroad. List chairs include four ministers of the Troika government and a minister of Beji Gaid Essebsi’s government, as well as five deputies from the Constituent Assembly. There are seven female heads of electoral lists, including one from France, and five independents and seven young people aged below thirty-five years.(22)

While these latter two parties are certain to access the Assembly of Representatives, their representation will be lower than it was in the Constituent Assembly elections, due to several structural and objective factors.

The Republican Party

The Republican Party has fielded lists in all districts despite the secession of some groups and key figures. Its chances are not good, similar to the case in the 2011 election.
 

The new parties

These parties have uneven or no presence in the Constituent Assembly, but several were able to compose lists in all districts. Among the parties that emerged recently are the Democratic Movement (split from the Congress Party), which is fielding candidate lists in thirty two constituencies: twenty-seven at home and five abroad, and the Democratic Alliance Party (split from the Republican Party) which has fielded thirty lists at home and four abroad.  The Wafa’ movement (another split from the Congress Party) has fielded lists across all constituencies.

Call for Tunisia

This party has a strange composition. It is a front or coalition of homogeneous movements in general (trade unionists, leftists and other associates and constitutionalists). It is therefore organisationally structured (except for central leadership). It does not have an integrated program and seems to be working towards achieving political and popular balance with Renaissance movement. Despite some resignations during the formation of the electoral lists, it succeeded in forming lists in all constituencies, with twenty-seven at home and six abroad. It is one of the few parties, along with the Constitutional Movement Party, which can compete with the Renaissance Party and the rest of the political spectrum.(23)
 

Constitutional Movement Party(24)

The constitutional and congregational parties have failed to unite, but were able to present lists in most districts. The Constitutional Movement Party has fielded twenty-five lists, twenty-three of them inside the republic and two abroad.

Among the heads of the Constitutional Movement lists are political figures that occupied significant positions in the old regime.(25) Given this fact, some disgruntled members of those parties presented independent lists parallel to their parties, possibly leading to the dispersion of the parties’ votes.(26) Despite all the tragedies that the rule of the Assembly Party caused, it is still probable that these parties will gain seats in the Assembly of Representatives, and perhaps even a significant number of seats.

Other political actors

The Nationalists

The nationalists remain dispersed, divided, and incapable of forming an independent and cohesive unit. They remain vulnerable to the attraction of both Islamists and leftists, and some of them went over to the Popular Front. Some others will run independently or on the People’s Movement ticket, which is fielding lists in twenty-six districts at home and two abroad. Yet others initially boycotted the elections (al-Bashir, al-Said, al-Murabetoon); therefore, their chances of success remain weak and limited.

The Salafis

Salafis represent an electoral stockpile, seemingly by default as indicated by a source close to them. It appears that some parties bet on them, but this election bargain may represent a loss, especially since some Salafi Parties will participate in the elections as the Reform Front Party.(27) The Reform Front Party will field lists in twenty-three districts as part of a coalition with the National Independence Party under the slogan, “The people demand”.(28) Other Salafis will participate in the Asala Party that is running in four constituencies.(29)

Alliances and Coalitions

Although the political arena in Tunisia has witnessed successful alliances during various phases,(30) attempts at coalitions and alliances did not develop soon after the revolution. They were limited in the 2011 elections for the Constituent Assembly. In this election, despite calls that consider “alliances crucial to avoid the predominance of Renaissance Party”,(31) this did not happen in practice. The main political parties that opposed the Troika and the Renaissance Party were only successful in forming partial alliances. The number of coalition lists that will participate in this election is limited, reaching only 140 lists, which is an increase of only about twelve per cent, not counting coalition lists abroad.

Popular Front

The Popular Front includes leftist and nationalist parties, independents and some associations.(32) It successfully overcame the obstacle of distributing shares at the top of the electoral lists. Allowing differential quotas ensured that the parties with the most solid local and regional representation gained the largest share of list chairs. It was able to present twenty-seven lists at home and six lists abroad. There is only partial data available on the front’s electoral list heads.(33)

Union for Tunisia(34)

This coalition was established on the basis that it “modified the balance of power created by the National Constituent Assembly elections”. Its stated goals include avoiding the dispersion of “the democratic family’s” votes in preparation for the legislative elections. However, with the approach of the elections, the Call for Tunisia Party withdrew from the Union for Tunisia and decided to enter the legislative elections alone. Thus, only two parties remain in the coalition, namely the Democratic Path Party (previously the Renewal Party) and the National Democratic Action Party. The Union for Tunisia holds a presence in thirty-two constituencies, twenty-seven at home and five abroad.  The chances of this alliance appear to be very modest due to its limited social and geographical breadth.
 

Al-Mahaba (Love) Stream

The al-Mahaba Stream, which came second in the 2011 Constituent Assembly election, is led from London by al-Hashemi al-Hamidi.(35) It introduced coalition lists in all constituencies in record time,(36) but it is unlikely to achieve a strong showing during this election, and may not even achieve a quarter of its previous success due to a variety of objective factors.

National Constitutional Initiative Party(37)

This coalition was initially comprised of nine parties; however, three of them withdrew (the Zarqa Alyamama or Blue Dove Party, the Third Option Party and the Tunisia of Tomorrow Party). The National Constitutional Initiative Party presented its candidacy for the elections in thirty-two constituencies: twenty-seven inside Tunisia and five abroad. It is fielding candidates in cooperation with the Constitutional Movement in Tunisia 1, and is supporting an independent list in Tozer district. Four women chair lists in the National Constitutional Initiative Party.(38)
 

National Salvation Front(39)

This alliance consists of six parties and civic organisation. It chose to run for elections in sixteen constituencies, including one abroad. It expressed willingness to support the Union for Tunisia’s lists in the rest of the districts.

These alliances and coalitions’ capabilities are somewhat limited and they don't all have the ability to secure seats in the first Assembly of Representatives. Many of their constituent parties have very limited breadth aside from the Popular Front, which will hopefully get a relatively good share of the seats.

Independent Lists

The number of independent lists reached three hundred and forty-eight lists at home and seventeen lists abroad. They are scattered across the inland provinces, especially the ones that complain of marginalisation, poverty and unemployment. These areas played a more significant role in the revolution than some of the coastal areas that are fielding large numbers of lists (for example, Kasserein has thirty-one lists and Sidi Bouzid has twenty-seven, versus nine lists in Sousse and two lists in Nabeul). Regardless of how these lists are formed or the goals of the party founders and their political commitment and sense of nationalism,(40) the numbers of independents in marginalised areas indicates that important sectors of the Tunisian citizenry lack confidence in the major parties. Some analysts consider the independents to be a less positive phenomenon that contributes to vote dispersion and ultimately weakens the system, leading to an overall lack of representation for everyone. Whatever the case, some of these independent lists will secure seats in the Assembly of Representatives, and may become significant players if the independent representatives form a bloc.

Trends in Tunisia’s political map

It appears that this election will induce fierce competition(41) among the political arena’s key players. Its results will be an important indicator of the popularity of the parties contesting the elections and of their policy positions. Therefore, each party seeks to prove its relevance by trying to gain more votes. But this will not necessarily lead to any fundamental change in the Tunisian polity after the elections. It is logical that the electoral weight of political parties that gained access to the Constituent Assembly will shrink for both the previous Troika and the broad popular parties. This is due to either internal or substantive factors, or both; given that the Congress, Bloc and Broad Popular parties have experienced internal divisions and the exit of some prominent figures who later formed independent parties.

This phenomenon has not impacted the Renaissance Party except in very limited cases.(42) However, some of the factors that helped it to secure the majority of votes in the election for the Constituent Assembly no longer exist, and it may lose ground due to the way it administered the government, or due to some of its positions and political behaviours that were necessitated by certain circumstances. Nevertheless, the decrease in Renaissance votes is unlikely to shift its position as the frontrunner in the Tunisian polity – it seems set to garner the most votes, while its former allies (the Congress and Bloc) are unlikely to achieve a similar representation, especially given the significant rise of the Call for Tunisia and some congregational and constitutional parties. It is probable that the weight of the Republican Party will diminish and that some of the new political parties that split from both the Congress and the Republican parties may secure positions in Tunisia’s new political map, but to a lesser extent. The Popular Front may well increase the number of its deputies as a result of gathering votes from its constituent parties and considering its relative geographical and social reach.

Summary

The new political map is moving towards dual polarisation dominated by the Renaissance Party and the Call for Tunisia Party, with the congregational parties potentially playing a significant role if no single party secures an absolute majority. While the electoral law does not exclude opportunities for coalitions and alliances, Tunisia has a relatively wide range of parties that are closely identified with other parties, either intellectually or in terms of their objectives. This complicates the polity in the post-election phase, with a power-sharing scenario between two or more parties being the most probable outcome.(43) Some have hypothesised that the Renaissance Party could form an alliance with the Call for Tunisia, while others have posited a tripartite coalition between the Renaissance, Congregational and Call for Tunisia parties which would isolate the rest of the parties.
 
All the competing political parties will necessarily face tests of their ability to maintain party cohesion and adhere to disciplinary rules, and may be judged according to their performance during the election campaign, with the media playing a key role in directing the battle. The strong presence of regional and international role-players adds pressure through their financial and logistical support for the major political parties, which is sometimes expressed in convoluted and subtle ways. These pressures have been evident in Tunisia since the revolution,(44) and they will inevitably increase during the elections given the context of the current escalation in the regional conflict between those who support the rule of "political Islam" and the opposing parties. Each side will invest its resources and energies to exert sufficient pressures in order to achieve victory in the forthcoming election. This pressure increases in tandem with the escalating Libyan situation and the certain political and economic implications for Tunisia.

The rationalisation of the political landscape in Tunisia’s emerging democracy requires transforming political pluralism from an incumbent that hinders to an incumbent that produces results and develops political life in general and the democratic experiment in particular. This will require a reduction in the number of political parties in return for building alliances and coalitions between parties that have a common vision and shared goals. It must be acknowledged that the political arena in Tunisia has not yet reached this stage and that some time will be required to achieve this level of political maturity. Thus, for now, the Tunisian voter will remain distracted in the face of an overwhelming number of parties about which he has little or limited knowledge. 
_______________________________________________
*Dr. Abdul Latif al-Hanachi is  a professor of contemporary and current political history at  the University of Manobeh in Tunis.

Endnote:
1) National Independent Commission for Judiciary, Media, Transitional Justice and Elections.
2) Etat uaranties d'un Tunisie, "La nouvelle Constitution uara-t-elle les: démocratique?" , 29 January 2014, www.huffpostmaghreb.com.
3) Fundamental Law Concerning Elections and Referendum Number 16 of 2014, dated 26 May 2014, Official Gazette Number 42, dated 27 May 2014.
4) Zomorodah Delhoma, "Pointing to The Absence of Any Signs of a Breakthrough: The Central Bank Announces the Seriousness of the Trade Deficit”, 3 September 2014, http://www.lemaghreb.tn  .
5) Shiraz Rahali, "After Ensuring That Tunisian Economy is Unable to Employ, Smuggling Trade Attracts Young People at Border Areas”, 5 September 2014, http://www.lemaghreb.tn.
6)  Kawthar Zentor, "Twelve Terrorists Arrested and Eleven RPG Shells Seized: Preparation for the Bombings in Sidi Bouzid and Kasserine", 6 September 2014, www.lemaghreb.tn. See also: Reza Safar, "There is a Regional Scheme to Strike Tunisia’s Political Stability”, 3 September 2014, http://www.tuniscope.com .
7) It could be that the recent visit of Mr. Rachid Ghannouchi to Algeria, at the official invitation of the Algerian state, and his meeting with former President Bouteflika, has indications in this regard. See: "Ghannouchi in Algeria, Libyan Situation Strongly Present This Time: Common Concerns and Interests Brought The Two Parties Together”, 26 August 2014, http://www.assabah.com.tn.
8) “Shafiq Sarsar Warns of The Four Dangers Threatening the Election”, 30 August 2014, http://www.africanmanager.com.
9) Haitham Ahmed, “Upcoming Elections Test Tunisian Compatibility”, July 2014, http://altagreer.com. This report examines the roles played by Kuwait and the UAE in order to “get the Renaissance Party out of the government”, by way of economic pressures and indirectly through the African Development Bank, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, all of which were demanding economic reforms as conditions to publicly provide loans to Tunisia.
10) The week's events as seen by: Ghazi Algharairi (Secretary-General of the International Academy of Constitutional Law), “The Political Arena is Still in its Primitive Beginnings”, 31 August 2014, http://www.alchourouk.com.
11) The number of dropped lists is not available for immigrant circles, despite what is being said about nineteen of them dropped. We took all the data available either from the Supreme Commission for Elections website, www.isie.tn, or through personal and direct contact with the commission's main office.
12) Essahafa, “The number of registered voters in the elections is satisfactory and positive”, 28 August 2014, http://www.essahafa.info.tn.
13) Agora-Parl, “Sub-Regional Forum report on Women's Participation in the Parliamentary Elections After the Revolution”, http://www.agora-parl.org.
14) African Manager, “Major Parties in Tunisia Compete to Attract Businessmen Points to a ‘Business Assembly’ instead of ‘People’s Assembly’ after the elections”, 28 August 2014, www.africanmanager.com.
15)  A businessmen nominated by them stated that he has differences with the Renaissance, but he ran for the service of his region and building an economic system on the Turkish model. See 28 August 2014, www.africanmanager.com.
16) Yassin Ibrahim, “25 percent is the Proportion of Businessmen on Prospects Party Lists”, 3 September 2014, http://www.africanmanager.com.
17) Abdul Wahab al-Haj Ali, “For Fear of Extremist Liberal Parliament, The Influx of Businessmen on the Electoral Lists is ‘Suspicious’ and Bouchmawi illustrates!” 1 September 2014, http://www.assabah.com.tn.
18) Waiting for the official announcement after the statement of a competent court which will consider the objections.
19)  Alchourouk, “Mercat Parties in the Final Moments Before the Election: Differences Between the Old Benefiting the Young”, 24 August 2014, http://www.alchourouk.com.
20) Assabah News, “Renaissance Lists: Most Candidates Education Men”, 25 August 2014, http://www.assabahnews.tn. See also: http://arabi21.com/News/Print/771411.
21) Statement of Session 27 of Renaissance Movement Shura Council, 7 September 2014, Tunisia, http://www.ennahdha.tn, and Mr. Rachid Ghannouchi's speech at the opening session of this council.
22) Salwa Altarhuni, "Heads of Congress Party for the Republic’s Lists", 30 August 2014, http://www.tunisien.tn.
23) Bojuma Alrumaili, “In the Composition of Its Electoral Lists: A Call Exam or a National Exam?” 26 August 2014, http://www.lemaghreb.tn.
24) Founded by former Prime Minister Hamed al-Karoui and Abderrahim Zouari a former minister in the Bourguiba and Ben Ali's eras, the party nominated the latter minister for the current  presidential elections. The party also includes an important group of ministers and senior officials who worked with the regimes  before the revolution, including Abbas Mohsen (Tunisia 1), mayor in the Ben Ali era, Tijani Haddad (Ariyana), minister of tourism in the former regime, Abeer Mosa (Beja), the dissolved Assembly Party lawyer, and Saeed Nasser Ramadan, Secretary of State and a senior official in the dissolved Assembly Party.
25) Hamed Karawi (Founder of the Constitutional Movement), “Ready for Legislative and Presidential Elections”, 12 September 2014, http://www.alchourouk.com.
26) In addition to Future Party lists, lists of the Liberals Constitutionalists Movement Party and independent lists, most notably the lists prepared by the Central Committee member of the dissolved Congregation Party, Ayaz Alwadrani. Also, there were joint lists between the Initiative Party and the Constitutional movement and a number of minor parties with Constitutional and Congregational backgrounds.
27) Given a license to operate legally in May 2012
28) Alchourouk, “2014 Elections: Salafists in the Legislative Election Race: Their Chances and Their Alliances”, 2 September 2014, http://www.alchourouk.com.
29) Given a license to operate legally in June 2012 and is considered the first Salafi party to get a legal activity license. It ran in Kairouan, Qabis, Madnein and Tataouin.
30) The prominent coalition in the 2011 elections was the Democratic Modernist Pole which won five seats in the Constituent Assembly.
31) Adel al-Nuqati, “Tunisia: Map of New Alliances: Political Parties Preparing Early for Electoral Processes”, 11 March 2014, http://www.aawsat.com.
32) The establishment of a front was officially announced on 7 October 2012, during a popular meeting. The parties and groups currently forming it are the Labors' Communist Party, the Democratic Nationalist Party, the United Democrats, the Baath movement, the vanguard of the Arab Democratic Party, the Progressive Struggle Party, the National Socialist Revolutionary Party, the Leftist Labor Association, and the People's Party for freedom and Progress, in addition to the association of “rad-Attack”, an independent and modernist pole.
33) Hassan Alafathali, “The Popular Front’s Aspirations in the Legislative Elections: Philosophy of the Front in the Distribution of Women at the Top of Lists”, 28 August 2014, http://www.lemaghreb.tn.
34) Its inception was officially announced late January 2013. It was founded by three opposition parties of the Troika ruling at the time, namely: the Republican and Democratic Social Path, Call for Tunisia before the enrollment of National Democratic Action Party and the Socialist Party in this political and electoral front.
35) The Party is unstructured and doesn't have offices other than its headquarters based in the heart of the capital.
36) Its platform calls for free health services, unemployment grant of 200 dinars per month, free mobility for the elderly who are over 66 years, the establishment of an investment fund of 6.5 billion dinars, and modification of some of the recently approved Constitution’s chapters.
37) Founded by Mr. Kamal Morjan, the last foreign minister of the ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
38) Essahafa, “With Progress in the Electoral Process, There is a Steady Decline in the Number of Parties of the National Constitutional Initiative Party”, 15 September 2014, http://www.essahafa.info.tn.
39) Heads of electoral lists for the initiative party can be found here, 29 August 2014, http://www.elmoubadara.com .
40) The National Front, which originally consisted of the National Movement Party, the Party of Democratic Action (left and joined the Union for Tunisia), the Party of the Constants, the group of the Unionist Democratic Union, the Unionist People's Movement, the Republican Concord Party and the New Left Party. Altohami al-Bdouly, “National Salvation Front is Seeking 15 seats in the Next Parliament”, 8 August 2014, http://www.assabahnews.tn.
41) Jehan le Ghmari, “The Very Independent Lists!” 12 August 2014, http://www.attounissia.com.tn.
42) Alchourouk, “Despite Truce Letter…Renaissance Shura Council Calls on Political Parties to Decide With Incitement and Commitment to a Positive Political Discourse”, 7 September 2014, http://www.alchourouk.com.
43) Leader Riad al-Shuaibi resigned and founded the National Building Party. The party obtained a license on 5 May 2014.
44) Al-Shourouk Online published al-Ghannouchi’s speech made at the opening of the Renaissance Shura Council of 6 September 2014, in which he says: “We are committed to national reconciliation, and are aware that Tunisia will not be governed in the coming period by a fifty plus one majority, the dominance of party on the scene, or monopolized by the three presidencies”. He also called “upon a National Unity Government after the elections”, but stated that “the most dangerous surprise may be the high proportion of those boycotting the elections due an exacerbated crisis of confidence in all parties and all politicians”.