The Rise of Youth Protests in Sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns and Implications

A series of mass protests swept Kenya in June 2024 to reject President William Ruto’s much-touted tax-raising policies (1). The youth-led protests, which are under the hashtag #RejectFinanceBill2024 on social media and culminated on June 25 when protesters stormed parliament, later inspired other Africans in neighboring Uganda to demonstrate against rampant government corruption (2). They are also being referred to by young Nigerians who, on August 1, began protests with the hashtag #EndBadGovernance across their county (3).

The wave of large-scale protests that have been occurring throughout Africa since 2020 are similar in patterns, as the majority of these protests are spearheaded by young people and revolve around calls for better socioeconomic circumstances, elections, and human rights violations. This also means that there are unresolved issues and reoccurring problems that reinforce the emergence of these demonstrations, especially given the fact that it was estimated that 577 protests and demonstrations took place in West Africa alone in 2020 (4).

Government-Citizen Disconnect

One could deduce from the ongoing protests that many young Africans feel disconnected from their governments and keep asking what officials are doing because they cannot feel the benefits despite the millions of dollars being announced daily in the national media for various projects. Another issue is the disparity between the desires of the youth and the initiatives of the old leadership, as Africa is the youngest continent in the world, with 60% of the population under the age of 25 (5), while Africa's presidents are, on average, 62 years old (6). Some of these presidents tend to lead in a way that leaves their citizens feeling a deep sense of frustration, and they constantly come up with policies that indicate their inability to connect with the needs and challenges of the youth.

The disconnect between government and citizens was evident in the Kenyan protests, which began over proposed tax increases but later evolved into a broader campaign for more accountable governance in the country and called for the resignation of the president (7). This is also the case in the ongoing protests in Nigeria, where protesters began with the stated aim of ending poor governance in the country, but some protesters added on the 2nd and 3rd days of the protests that president Bola Ahmed Tinubu must step down from office (8).

Besides, this disconnect can be noticed during the political changes in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where the youths in these countries supported the toppling of the “democratically” elected governments and demonstrated in support of the armies and military juntas, as young Africans are becoming less supportive of democracy due to a number of reasons that include the shortcomings of the elected governments. This is further supported by findings from an Afrobarometer survey published in 2021, which showed that African youths between the ages of 18 and 35 are less likely than those over 35 to vote, attend community meetings, or get in touch with political leaders, while about six out of ten young Africans (61 percent of those between the ages of 18 and 35) believe that their country is headed "in the wrong direction" (9).

Growing Corruption

News of corruption scandals involving politicians is published virtually every day in many African countries; however, the majority of these instances are swept under the carpet by anti-corruption agencies. In the case of Nigeria, many citizens question why government officials rarely get sacked or resign from their positions despite their corrupt activities and poor performance. This is comparable to Kenya, where MPs flaunt their opulent lifestyles on various social media platforms while the country's youth population becomes more incensed over planned tax increases. These daring acts by Kenyan parliamentarians and government officials furthered the belief that politicians are rarely held accountable since President Ruto took office in September 2022 (10).

In a 2023 Open Society Barometer, many Africans believe corruption is their biggest national problem (11). This was previously revealed in 2021 by Afrobarometer survey that covered 34 countries, which reported that of the 34 African countries, on average, nearly six out of ten (58%) feel that corruption rose in their country in the previous year, with 40% saying it "increased a lot." The majority believe that their government is not doing enough to combat corruption, and only three out of ten Africans are satisfied with how well their government has performed in combating corruption (12). 

Therefore, it was not unexpected when the demonstrators in Uganda in July called for the resignation of Speaker of the Parliament Anita Annet Among, who had been mentioned in a social media exposé about corruption in February along with other parliamentarians. The demonstrators also demanded a decrease in the salaries of their MPs, as many Ugandans expressed their dissatisfaction on many occasions with the salaries of their 557 MPs, who are said to be among the highest paid in the world (13).

Between Economic Reforms and Deteriorating Living Standards

The economic crisis and worsening standard of living are contributing to the recent wave of protests throughout Africa in general and in sub-Saharan Africa in particular. This is consistent with a 2023 report by Maplecroft (14) that 16 of the 20 most vulnerable countries on its Food Security Index (FSI), which gauges the stability, accessibility, and availability of food supplies, are located in Africa. Additionally, the continent experienced the sharpest increase in risk on the index over the previous two years, which has raised the possibility of food-related protests and riots by citizens.

On the one hand, African governments are under pressure to make reforms through implementing several policies, including those based on the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as conditions to raise funds or secure World Bank loans. Those that are under relatively high debt and can't provide sufficient infrastructure and opportunities for their citizens have also been on the debt restructuring tables. Some took the decision of floating their national currency and removing fuel subsidies, or increasing indirect taxes and other revenue-generation schemes.

However, these reform policies have exacerbated the suffering of their citizens and even compounded the hardship being faced by the unemployed young people, who are estimated to be over 20% on average in Africa—with some countries having rates as high as 80% (15). Many of these citizens also believe that the initial economic problems stem from the non-responsiveness of previous or current governments, mismanagement of national resources, and lack of vision from their leaders. They also question the rationales behind introducing more taxes despite the abject poverty of many of their people, while government officials and political elites keep living large at the expense of the country.

In the case of Nigeria, where the World Bank in 2023 estimates that 46% of the country's population (representing 104 million people) lived below the poverty line (16) and the country's National Bureau of Statistics estimates that 53.40% of the country's youth are unemployed (17), President Bola Tinubu, who, ironically, was instrumental in the Occupy Nigeria protests of 2012, which were against the elimination of the fuel subsidies by President Goodluck Jonathan's administration, announced on May 29, 2023, the most radical policy in the country's recent history by eliminating fuel subsidies. His administration also moved the naira to a floating exchange rate in order to close the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. The elimination of subsidies caused petrol pump prices to soar from about N190 (US $0.11) to N700 ($0.42) per liter, impacting the nation's overall cost of living. Meanwhile, the value of the Nigerian Naira fell from N470 to over N1,500 to a dollar (18). These austerity measures have had negative economic and social effects on every sector of the nation.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have applauded Tinubu’s economic reform, stating that the steps were necessary to revive Nigeria’s economy. Although the risky circumstances of these measures ultimately resulted in the current protests, Tinubu’s government has previously announced the disbursement of food, millions of dollars, and other forms of aid to ease hardship. In addition, he signed a bill into law increasing the minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000 (44.67 dollars). His administration also introduced student loan programs for tertiary education (19). However, many Nigerians said they had not yet gotten the announced palliatives, and a number of people, including the protesters, stated they were not persuaded enough by the government’s efforts to mitigate the effects of the economic policies or by the president’s speech on the 4th of August 2024 to address the protests (20).

Another case in point was the three-day protests in Ghana against the socioeconomic situation in September 2023 under the hashtag #OccupyJulorbiHouse, during which hundreds of young protesters called for economic reforms and accused government officials of embezzlement and poor administration. The International Monetary Fund approved a $3 billion loan for the country for 3 years in May 2023 after the country’s public debt reached its limit in 2022. However, many claim the government did not take advantage of these funds or pursue appropriate actions to alleviate the cost of living crisis (21). The nation’s finance minister was removed in a cabinet reshuffle six months after the protests, and in an effort to ease tensions, the government also unveiled a number of social and economic projects (22).

Protests as Last Resort

Young demonstrators' statements in different African countries make it evident that they view protests as a last resort for airing their grievances, as many of them believe that authorities and government agencies are not paying attention to them while the other arms of government seem to be working in favor of the ruling class. This is particularly true in countries where there are imperial presidency or hegemonic political regimes. This notion is further demonstrated by the difficulties youth face when attempting to participate in national politics and democratic processes, as well as the widespread perception among Africans that reporting corruption to the government will put them at risk of reprisal.

It is noteworthy that many of the demonstrations since 2020 were preceded by a series of social rights cases and accusations of abuse of power by the government or its officials and armed forces. The 2020 #EndSARS demonstrations in Nigeria began in response to years of accusations by young people about police misconduct and brutality (23).

In Mozambique, public anger about the high cost of living and social injustice—two aspects the well-known rapper Edson da Luz, also known as Azagaia, frequently addressed in his songs—preceded the youth-led protests in March 2023, which were set off by the musician's death due to a sudden illness (24). Also, Senegal's widespread anti-government demonstrations in February this year were a response to the long speculations that the country's president at the time, Macky Sall, was interested in seeking a third term despite completing his second and final term and his efforts to postpone the much-awaited presidential poll from February to December 2024 (25). In Kenya, the #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests started as a result of public outcry of government corruption.

The July anti-corruption protests in Uganda were also preceded by pushbacks from young climate campaigners who are against the environmental and social impacts of the proposed Uganda-Tanzania crude oil pipeline, known as the East African crude oil pipeline. Some of these climate campaigners “were kidnapped, arbitrarily arrested, detained, or subjected to different forms of harassment by the Ugandan authorities between May 27 and June 5, 2024,"  according to the International Federation for Human Rights (26).

In a similar vein, some African political leaders have long attempted to use cultural, religious, and regional allegiances in order to control populations. However, these tactics seem to have failed since many citizens feel that their governments have taken them for granted. Also, many of the recent protests have proven effective and capable of attracting immediate action from governments. For example, former South African President Jacob Zuma was forced to resign in February 2018 following intense pressure from his party, the African National Congress, after several “Zuma must fall” protests between 2015 and 2017 in Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban, among other cities, calling on the government to take action against government corruption and state capture (27).

Similarly, in Senegal, President Sall eventually reversed the decision to stall the 2024 election, paving the way for the election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye. In Kenya, President Ruto rejected the finance bill 2024, replaced his entire cabinet, called for talks with protesters, and brought four senior opposition members into the new cabinet to create a “government of national unity.” The Kenyan president also unveiled administrative and legal reforms to address accusations of political corruption.

Implications

The recent and ongoing mass protests in Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria have all brought attention to the serious issues these countries' citizens are facing and have put pressure on those in positions of authority to find solutions and to loosen some of the policies that complicate the situation. These movements have also been able to publicize some youth-led projects and civil society organizations’ initiatives that enlighten young people about their rights and strengthen good governance.

Among the few instances of these initiatives in Kenya are the AI-powered tools, such as the 13th Parliament chatbot, which describes the contributions of Kenyan Members of Parliament to parliamentary discussions; the Corrupt Politicians GPT, which uncovers cases of political corruption; and the Finance Bill GPT, which looks into the 2024 bill and its possible effects on citizens and local businesses. Kenyan activists have also provided explanations on how individuals can use these tools to recall their lawmakers (28).

Besides, one of the patterns in the recent protests is the non-concentration of protest leadership in one group or specific faces, which makes it hard for any government to negotiate with the recent protesters who add to their list of demands each day of the protest. Also, while the ruling parties usually accuse protesters of being sponsored by foreign entities or opposition political parties, some participants in the 2024 mass protests have also labeled the pre-2020 protests’ leaders as “government apologists” and “political jobbers” due to their perceived silence or involvement in the current governments.

Another pattern is that recent mass protests continue to end in violence. Some think this is due to the bad management from security forces and the extent of anger from the youth, while others believe this is because some criminal groups are infiltrating them in order to launch attacks, destroy critical infrastructure and properties, or to pursue an ulterior motive that differs from the protestors' stated goals. For instance, the protests over Kenya's finance bill, which started on June 18 and were largely peaceful for a week, descended into violence early on June 25 after a group of demonstrators stormed the parliament building, setting fire to the offices of lawmakers (29). Another instance was the #EndSars demonstrations, which ultimately resulted in the demolition of several buildings and pieces of infrastructure in Lagos, including 80 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) vehicles (30).

Kidnappings, detentions, and acts of police brutality have also tainted a number of recent protests. As for the demonstrations over the Finance Bill, Kenya’s National Human Rights Commission announced that since mid-June, more than 50 people have been killed, nearly 700 have been arbitrarily detained, and 59 have been abducted or reported missing. Similarly, during anti-corruption protests in Uganda in July, police reportedly arrested 104 people and charged almost all of them with public order offenses. Also, in the course of the ongoing #EndBadGovernance demonstration in Nigeria, the police have detained hundreds of protestors and used tear gas to disperse them.

Although reports indicate a marked increase in the disruptions faced by businesses in Africa due to rallies (31), riots, and protests, the increased frequency of large-scale demonstrations despite the violence that accompanies them indicates that young Africans are willing to do anything to achieve their demands or solve their problems. This also means that unless a practical solution for cooperation is found, tensions between African governments and their youth may escalate in the future given the huge number of young people whose demands often differ from the missions of older political leaders and their parties.

The different accusations that marred the recent and ongoing protests mean that future mass demonstrations may take different dimensions. Political stubbornness will continue in some countries, as in the case of Nigeria, whose president Tinubu ruled out the reversal of his government’s economic policies. There are indications that governments might increase their crackdown on civil society organizations going by the claims, in Kenya (32) and Nigeria (33), that they are being sponsored by foreign entities to destabilize their countries.

Besides, in some Nigerian northern cities, protesters were seen waving Russian flags and calling for the Nigerian military to take over the government (34). This suggests that some of the protesters in the ongoing protests are pro-Russians and want the country to follow the suit of neighboring Niger, whose military toppled an elected president, took over power, and cut ties with the West in favor of Russia. Nigeria also saw a rise in the spread of violence and insecurity since the start of the end bad governance protest, as Boko Haram was reported to have infiltrated the protests in the Bornu state, northeast of Nigeria (35).