Ashoura Events in Iran: Observations and Predictions

As events unfold, the Iranian opposition appears to be acquiring new ideological features. The recent protests have explicitly borne the demand for reform of the Vilayat-e Faqih principle, thrusting the regime’s identity into the heart of the political conflict.

Recently, the protest movement in Iran has gained fresh momentum, seizing two opportunities: the heightened tension that accompanied the funeral of the Shi’a cleric Hussain Muntadhiri, who is widely considered to be the spiritual father of the call to reform the Vilayat-e Faqih principle from absolute to limited constitutional rule; and Ashoura, a Shiite religious festival in which masses can celebrate in public congregations without a permit, which the government has consistently refused to grant the opposition. The protests are another episode in a spiral movement that has continued since President Ahmedinejad’s re-election.