Policy Briefs Archive

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An Advance Line of Defense: Moscow’s Objectives in Libya

Thu, 06/04/2020 - 20:26

Moscow is escalating its undisclosed intervention in Libya to set up an advanced line of defence in the Mediterranean but the chances of its success are uncertain due to the nature of the NATO’s potential count…

What Comes after the Pandemic?: Predicting the World to Come*

Wed, 05/13/2020 - 08:00

There is no doubt that it is a terrible pandemic, but it seems that modern humans have yet to gain the level of wisdom necessary to see through to the catastrophic consequences of their way of life, organizatio…

Declaration of Autonomy: The Gradual Erosion of Authority in South Yemen

Sun, 05/10/2020 - 14:40

In light of competing interests and calculations, the situation in south Yemen could unfold along various trajectories, but the determining factor will be the extent to which the STC takes its commitment to the…

Popular Protests in Iraq: The Short- and Long-Term Repercussions

Thu, 11/14/2019 - 10:58

The protests, which began in early October, represent a popular rejection of the policies pursued by all Iraqi governments since 2003, which the protestors say have impoverished Iraqis, fomented ethnic and sect…

The Future of IS after Baghdadi

Tue, 11/12/2019 - 08:35

IS will face problems filling the vacuum left by Baghdadi and maintaining cohesion. It could also be weakened by internal factionalism or sustained pressure by the powers that seek to eradicate it.

Lebanese protests: cross-communal rage

Wed, 10/30/2019 - 06:21

Lebanon is witnessing protests that are unprecedented in size, reach and their surpassing of sectarian boundaries; and partial reforms and repeated warnings have been unable to stop or undermine them.

Redrawing the Turkish political map

Wed, 09/25/2019 - 10:58

However the partisan drama plays out, developments suggest Turkey is entering a new era of political fragmentation, leaving behind a relatively long period of political and partisan stability ushered in by the…

Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown

Sun, 05/19/2019 - 10:49

Although both the United States and Iran say they do not want a direct military confrontation, such escalation by the United States necessarily invites an Iranian response, particularly since Tehran is butting…

The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications

Sun, 04/21/2019 - 09:12

Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.

Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Thu, 04/04/2019 - 10:54

Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a micr…

The popular movement in Algeria: motivations and outcomes

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 07:56

By recognising the legitimacy of the protestors’ demands, praising their peaceful conduct, and offering piecemeal concessions, the Algerian regime hopes to defuse the protests or perhaps buy time to divide the…

Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes

Thu, 02/07/2019 - 10:22

The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure.…

The US Withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences

Sun, 12/30/2018 - 07:24

Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to…

The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities

Wed, 12/26/2018 - 10:45

So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples…

The Khashoggi assassination remains in the spotlight

Tue, 12/04/2018 - 06:43

Saudi Arabia is working overtime at damage control, seeking to put the assassination to rest. Despite these efforts, the crisis persists as the biggest that has ever faced the kingdom. The killing has seriously…

The Saudi Predicament: The Domestic and Foreign Cost of Khashoggi’s Assassination

Wed, 10/24/2018 - 08:50

Khashoggi’s assassination has seriously eroded Saudi Arabia’s reputation, interests and international relations. This puts the kingdom’s allies and MBS boosters in a tight spot, wondering if they should disasso…

The Saudi-Canadian crisis: double standards for the concept of sovereignty and interference in internal affairs

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 10:43

The recent Saudi reaction to the Canadian criticism over arrests of two Saudi women’s rights activists raised questions about the concept of sovereignty and the meaning of interference in the internal affairs o…

The crisis of Turkish-American relations: cracks, but no break

Mon, 08/13/2018 - 08:59

Due to long-standing mutual interests between Turkey and the United States, the Brunson issue and the sanctions are unlikely to precipitate a break in relations, though disputes between the two countries may gr…

Iraqi parliamentary elections: a lost opportunity to overcome sectarianism and foreign tutelage

Thu, 07/05/2018 - 11:40

The Iraqi parliamentary elections of 12 May 2018 laid bare the country’s extreme political fragmentation, with multiple political forces and electoral coalitions taking a fraction of the vote, but none enough t…

Elections usher Turkey into new era

Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:12

Despite some upended expectations, the elections demonstrated Erdogan’s astonishing capacity for survival and the Turkish public’s desire for stability. The results of both polls suggest that Turkey’s final tra…

Turkey’s Early Elections: Timing the Tide or Outfoxing the Opposition?

Wed, 04/25/2018 - 13:22

If Erdogan wins, that is likely to usher in a period of greater institutional stability in Turkey, making clear where the center of decision-making lies. If, however, Gul runs and wins, particularly if the AKP…

After US-led Airstrikes: New Radius of Escalation around Syria

Sun, 04/22/2018 - 10:35

The shelling of Israeli jets of the T4 military airfield east of Homs and the airstrikes launched by the United States, the United Kingdom and France less than a week later further complicated the already byzan…

The Battle of Ghouta

Mon, 04/09/2018 - 11:16

The international community has once again failed to stop the Assad’s regime and to contain Moscow’s advances in Syria. They have left the resistance in eastern Ghouta with a very few limited options in the bat…