Policy Briefs Archive

Filter by Year:

The French initiative: technocratic fixes for Lebanon’s chronic crises

Sun, 09/13/2020 - 10:30

Major Lebanese factions are urgently trying to fulfill French demands for the formation of a technocratic government that opens the door for international aids and alleviates public anger and increasing foreign…

Turkey and Greece: pouring gas on the eastern Mediterranean dispute

Sun, 09/06/2020 - 09:19

The Turkish-Greek conflict over maritime borders is unlike any other in the world. Not only does it involve potentially vast wealth under the seabed in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, it relies on div…

Turkey and Egypt: toward a necessary de-escalation

Tue, 09/01/2020 - 18:31

Despite the recent escalation and the stark divide between their vision of their interests and roles, both Turkey and Egypt realise that a direct clash would be damaging for both of them. In fact, there are ind…

The fourth coup: Mali between peaceful transition and security vacuum

Sun, 08/30/2020 - 11:47

A group of Malian soldiers overthrew President Keita and formed a committee to lead the country. This was welcomed internally and denounced externally. However, their mission now faces domestic and foreign pres…

The Israeli-Emirati peace agreement: ambiguous and fragile

Thu, 08/20/2020 - 18:24

The most likely scenario is for the UAE to take advantage of the agreement in areas such as advanced technology, weapons acquisitions and intelligence cooperation, as well as agriculture and health while avoidi…

The Sirte-Jufra line: a front in the war or the basis of negotiations?

Sun, 08/02/2020 - 22:55

Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the ec…

The Mechichi government: Will it resolve the Tunisian crisis or deepen it?

Wed, 07/29/2020 - 21:17

Tunisian President Kais Saied tapped Hichem Mechichi to form a new government, following the resignation of Prime Minister Elyas Fakhfakh, whose government lasted a brief, though stormy, five months marred by a…

Moment of truth: Mali teeters between President Keïta and the protest movement

Mon, 07/27/2020 - 16:04

President Keïta is currently facing a mass movement demanding he step down. Decrying rampant corruption, election rigging, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, a lack of security, and ethnic conflict,…

States within the state: Kadhimi’s challenge is to bring Shia militias under control

Wed, 07/22/2020 - 20:02

The security crisis facing the Kadhimi government and the Iraqi state is a major obstacle to stability and economic development in Iraq, representing a significant drain on the country’s resources and capacitie…

An Advance Line of Defense: Moscow’s Objectives in Libya

Thu, 06/04/2020 - 20:26

Moscow is escalating its undisclosed intervention in Libya to set up an advanced line of defence in the Mediterranean but the chances of its success are uncertain due to the nature of the NATO’s potential count…

What Comes after the Pandemic?: Predicting the World to Come*

Wed, 05/13/2020 - 08:00

There is no doubt that it is a terrible pandemic, but it seems that modern humans have yet to gain the level of wisdom necessary to see through to the catastrophic consequences of their way of life, organizatio…

Declaration of Autonomy: The Gradual Erosion of Authority in South Yemen

Sun, 05/10/2020 - 14:40

In light of competing interests and calculations, the situation in south Yemen could unfold along various trajectories, but the determining factor will be the extent to which the STC takes its commitment to the…

Popular Protests in Iraq: The Short- and Long-Term Repercussions

Thu, 11/14/2019 - 10:58

The protests, which began in early October, represent a popular rejection of the policies pursued by all Iraqi governments since 2003, which the protestors say have impoverished Iraqis, fomented ethnic and sect…

The Future of IS after Baghdadi

Tue, 11/12/2019 - 08:35

IS will face problems filling the vacuum left by Baghdadi and maintaining cohesion. It could also be weakened by internal factionalism or sustained pressure by the powers that seek to eradicate it.

Lebanese protests: cross-communal rage

Wed, 10/30/2019 - 06:21

Lebanon is witnessing protests that are unprecedented in size, reach and their surpassing of sectarian boundaries; and partial reforms and repeated warnings have been unable to stop or undermine them.

Redrawing the Turkish political map

Wed, 09/25/2019 - 10:58

However the partisan drama plays out, developments suggest Turkey is entering a new era of political fragmentation, leaving behind a relatively long period of political and partisan stability ushered in by the…

Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown

Sun, 05/19/2019 - 10:49

Although both the United States and Iran say they do not want a direct military confrontation, such escalation by the United States necessarily invites an Iranian response, particularly since Tehran is butting…

The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications

Sun, 04/21/2019 - 09:12

Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.

Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Thu, 04/04/2019 - 10:54

Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a micr…

The popular movement in Algeria: motivations and outcomes

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 07:56

By recognising the legitimacy of the protestors’ demands, praising their peaceful conduct, and offering piecemeal concessions, the Algerian regime hopes to defuse the protests or perhaps buy time to divide the…

Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes

Thu, 02/07/2019 - 10:22

The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure.…

The US Withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences

Sun, 12/30/2018 - 07:24

Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to…

The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities

Wed, 12/26/2018 - 10:45

So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples…